2040年亞太地區(qū)石油需求將增長(zhǎng)25%

據(jù)伍德曼肯茲官網(wǎng)7月28日?qǐng)?bào)道，最新報(bào)告顯示，預(yù)計(jì)2020年亞太地區(qū)的石油產(chǎn)品需求將同比下降180萬(wàn)桶/天，且亞洲的石油需求增長(zhǎng)還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。到2040年，該地區(qū)的石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將較2019年增長(zhǎng)900萬(wàn)桶/天(25%)，達(dá)到4480萬(wàn)桶/天。

疫情不確定性和悲觀的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景將在短期內(nèi)對(duì)亞太地區(qū)的石油需求和煉油行業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響。但從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，未來(lái)對(duì)流動(dòng)性和石化產(chǎn)品的需求將繼續(xù)保持強(qiáng)勁。到2040年，該地區(qū)的石油需求將占全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的一半以上。

伍德曼肯茲研究主管Sushant Gupta表示:“盡管需求持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，但未來(lái)20年的增長(zhǎng)速度不到過(guò)去20年的一半，這主要是因?yàn)槿加托实奶岣?、電?dòng)汽車的普及以及運(yùn)輸部門的石油需求減少。”

石油需求增長(zhǎng)也越來(lái)越依賴石化原料，從2019年到2040年，這一數(shù)字可能會(huì)增加500萬(wàn)桶/天。中國(guó)在這一增長(zhǎng)中占了很大一部分，原因是蒸汽裂解技術(shù)的擴(kuò)大，以及丙烷脫氫(PDH)和芳烴生產(chǎn)能力的增長(zhǎng)。

因此，亞洲煉油廠面臨的最大挑戰(zhàn)是，要滿足石化原料供應(yīng)的日益短缺。今年，將看到近300萬(wàn)桶/天的原料短缺，但到2027年，這個(gè)數(shù)字可能會(huì)增長(zhǎng)到380萬(wàn)桶/天。中東作為亞洲石油化工原料供應(yīng)大戶，將無(wú)法完全滿足亞洲的需求，預(yù)計(jì)，亞洲對(duì)美國(guó)和歐洲等市場(chǎng)的進(jìn)口將日益增長(zhǎng)

隨著石化原料日益短缺和對(duì)汽油的需求不斷增長(zhǎng)，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，亞洲也可能出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性汽油短缺。在2019年至2040年間，汽油需求將增加近200萬(wàn)桶/天。除非建立更多的煉油產(chǎn)能，否則石化原料和汽油將繼續(xù)短缺。

相比之下，隨著中國(guó)柴油和汽油需求增長(zhǎng)放緩，預(yù)計(jì)該地區(qū)的柴油和汽油將出現(xiàn)大量過(guò)剩，到2027年將達(dá)到150萬(wàn)桶/天。

總體看來(lái)，亞洲面臨著雙重挑戰(zhàn)，一方面要滿足輕質(zhì)餾分油的短缺，另一方面要為過(guò)剩的中間餾分油找到出口市場(chǎng)。這種不平衡意味著煉油商需要重新考慮他們的出口市場(chǎng)，未來(lái)的煉油能力和配置，以及未來(lái)石化原料的類型。

亞洲的產(chǎn)品平衡與歐洲相反——輕質(zhì)餾分油進(jìn)口國(guó)和中型餾分油出口國(guó)。因此，兩者之間存在天然的協(xié)同作用，但挑戰(zhàn)在于它們地理位置相距較遠(yuǎn)。但是，亞洲的貿(mào)易逆差為東西方的貿(mào)易進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)提供了機(jī)會(huì)，以滿足亞洲日益增長(zhǎng)的部分需求。

為了配合向石化行業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)變，亞洲許多煉油商正朝著與化工行業(yè)更深層次整合的方向邁進(jìn)。Gupta補(bǔ)充道，綜合工廠應(yīng)該找到一個(gè)在原料生產(chǎn)和原料轉(zhuǎn)化為化學(xué)品方面具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的最佳區(qū)域。

從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，亞太地區(qū)需要更多的煉油產(chǎn)能來(lái)滿足需求，但預(yù)計(jì)所需的新增產(chǎn)能增長(zhǎng)率僅為過(guò)去20年的一半。伍德曼肯茲預(yù)計(jì)，長(zhǎng)期而言，煉油利潤(rùn)率將回升，這將支持亞洲的煉油產(chǎn)能投資，但亞洲的過(guò)度建設(shè)將意味著歐洲的煉油產(chǎn)能將進(jìn)一步合理化。

而隨著亞洲需求增長(zhǎng)中心從中國(guó)向印度和東南亞轉(zhuǎn)移，這些地區(qū)將需要率先建設(shè)新的煉油產(chǎn)能。

王佳晶 摘譯自 伍德曼肯茲官網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Asia Pacific’s oil demand to fall in 2020 but could rise 25% by 2040

According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, oil products demand in Asia Pacific is expected to fall by 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) year-on-year in 2020. But oil demand growth in Asia has still a long way to run. By 2040, the region’s oil demand is expected to rise by 25% (9 million b/d) to 44.8 million b/d compared to 2019.

Covid-19 and a pessimistic economic outlook will have a near-term impact on oil demand and the refining sector in Asia Pacific. But in the long-run, demand continues to be robust driven by a future demand for mobility and petrochemicals. The region will account for over half of global oil demand growth by 2040.

Wood Mackenzie research director Sushant Gupta said: Although demand continues to grow, the rate of growth in the next 20 years is less than half that of the past 20 years, primarily because of higher fuel efficiency, penetration of electric vehicles and displacement of oil in the transport sector.

“Oil demand growth is also increasingly reliant on petrochemical feedstocks, which could grow by over 5 million b/d from 2019 to 2040. China accounts for the bulk of this growth, because of an expansion in steam cracking and growth in propane dehydrogenation (PDH) and aromatics production capacities.

“So, the big challenge for refiners in Asia is to meet the growing deficit in petrochemical feedstocks. This year we will see close to 3 million b/d of feedstock shortage, but by 2027 this deficit could grow to 3.8 million b/d. Middle-East, which is a traditional exporter of petrochemical feedstocks to Asia, will not be able to meet the shortages in Asia fully, and we expect a growing reliance on imports from long-haul markets such as US and Europe.”

With a growing shortage of petrochemical feedstock and a growing demand for gasoline, Asia could also see a structural shortage of gasoline in the long run. Gasoline demand rises by close to 2 million b/d between 2019 and 2040. Unless additional refinery capacity and appropriate refinery configurations are built to focus on light-products, both petrochemical feedstocks and gasoline will continue to be short.

In contrast, as diesel/gasoil demand growth in China slows down, the region is expected to see a large surplus of diesel/gasoil, reaching 1.5 million b/d by 2027.

Gupta said: “Asia faces a dual challenge of meeting its shortages of light-products and finding export markets for its surplus middle-distillates. This imbalance means refiners need to rethink on their export markets, future refinery capacity and configurations, and the future types of petrochemical feedstocks.

“Overall, Asia’s product balances are opposite to Europe – light-distillate importer and middle-distillate exporter - so there is a natural synergy, with the challenge being their geographical separation. But, deficits in Asia present opportunities for West to East trade to grow further and meet part of Asia’s growing demand.”

To align with a shift towards petrochemicals, many refiners in Asia are moving towards a deeper integration with chemicals. Gupta added that a successful integrated site should find an optimal zone where the site is competitive for feedstock generation and for converting feedstock into chemicals.

In the long run, Asia Pacific needs more refining capacity to meet demand, but the required rate of capacity additions is expected to be half that of the past 20 years. Wood Mackenzie expects refining margins to recover in the longer term to support refinery capacity investments in Asia, but an over-build in Asia will mean more rationalisation in Europe.

Finally, as the demand growth centres in Asia shift from China to India and Southeast Asia, these regions will be required to take the lead in building new refining capacity.